Image credit: N Sher
It's been nice, but we need to pause the weather tape and revert briefly back to more summer like weather. Early in the week, temperatures will return to the low 30s (upper 80s and low 90s) with high humidity.
However, just as quickly as the winds blow from a more southerly direction, they will turn around by Tuesday and blow from the west/northwest. The result will be a return to temperatures in the mid 20s. The start of Sukkot should be quite nice (some might even choose a light coat for the sukkah).
At the moment, the GFS (the global forecast model) and our WRF (higher resolution model) are showing a storm spinning up at the end of the week. This is our first forecast storm of the season, and there is also an indication from the Global Ensemble Forecast System model (GEFS) that a storm will indeed form in the eastern Mediterranean (meaning: if we change the initial conditions of the forecast to allow for possible error in the observations, we see that the rainy signal still persists, so we have higher confidence than if only the GFS by itself showed the storm).
This suggests that Shabbat and possibly Sunday may have fall showers. The rest of the holiday looks to be mild and dry -- good weather for being outdoors!
Jerusalem forecast (click for other forecasts):
Image credit: The Jerusalem Herald
Those who have lived here a long time mention that it used to be rainier at the time of Sukkot than it is now. One of those people is my wife. When I decided to move to Israel, I also decided that I should marry an Israeli woman. While not everyone was in agreement that this was a good idea, I thought it would make my transition from an American to an Israeli weather forecaster easier, so I thought it a good idea to make such an effort on my behalf (I am very practical).
It turns out that this was not necessarily the best approach to finding a wife. You may remember that we have our differences: she likes summer and I like winter. But there is something else: her family is from the east and mine is from the west; not only did we have to come from different directions to get here, but the cultures on which we base our world view are also different.
For instance, it is her firm belief that the children should be served first, while where I'm from the father is served first. Despite my protestations that I need to eat first (and quickly) so I can be ready to hunt mastadon, she has insisted on her way being right.
Recently being the time after my operation when I looked (and acted) distressed enough that I was served first (and sent off to bed).
Other "advantages:" I was told that I'm not allowed to lift heavy objects, so no taking out the garbage. Cleaning the floors is also too strenuous. If it weren't for the fact that I was quite sick, I really would have been living the high life -- maybe even better than the family in "Downtown Abbey."
Alas, my six weeks grace period is running out and quite frankly I'm not ready to return to my old work routine (or rather I don't want to).
Fortunately, I found a very interesting and useful website www.irresponsiblehusbands.com. After checking off that you're not a robot and not a woman, you can gain access to this mythical site. For a small fee you can get a doctor's note for just about anything, including making a mess in the kitchen ("Husband must be allowed to make mess to reduce stress and chance of ...").
I printed out three or four doctor's notes, and am ready to hand them to my wife (and kids) very soon.
Dr. Lynn is a lecturer at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Earth Sciences Department. He is also CEO of Weather It Is, LTD, a company that specializes in reducing weather risk.