Confusing Weather; Confusing Conversations

November 19, 2017

 

It's over -- that's it -- fall will exit and winter will enter.  Winds will quickly shift to the northwest and usher in the coolest air of the season. 

 

Still, some might still call this fall: in fact, my wife's mother told me that years ago (when she was a young mother) she remembers the rain and cold that greeted each new child -- and this was during fall before the arrival of winter.  Now, it seems like we skip fall and then when winter arrives it doesn't last very long. In any case, winter may be arriving but the long range forecast shows a 70% chance of milder weather returning next week. 

 

This may also explain why my wife doesn't like winter.  On the other hand, I was born at the end of the year and I love winter, so we may have to conduct further study to understand why I like winter and she doesn't.  

 

In any case, although the weather this week will resemble winter more than fall, the hoped for heavy rain will probably not materialize.  Instead, there should be showers on Monday and periods of rain on Tuesday, with moderate rain amounts along the coastal areas and lower amounts in the central mountain areas.  This should still be a nice change from our dry weather, and temperatures should remain chilly through Thursday or even Friday.

 

For interest sake, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the weather forecast for next week, and there are actually two forecasts (a 10%) chance that it will get even colder, if not downright cold.

 

Jerusalem forecast (click for other forecasts):

 Image credit: The Jerusalem Herald

 

Trying to communicate the weather forecast -- and provide actionable information -- is difficult, especially (as previously noted) this time of year the weather systems are not as strong or as large as those of winter.

 

Also, only about half the world's population are men, so there is the potential for miscommunication right there.  For instance, some weeks ago (but not too many) while speaking with my daughter, I parted from her saying that I was off to the kiddish and then for a walk. Now, she's pretty good at math, and there was a straight line between the house, the kiddish and the rest of the walk. 

 

I returned about an hour later and she asked me if it was time for our walk. I looked at her and she looked at me. I looked at her again, and asked her a simple question: "What did I say?" She repeated what I said and I asked her if she had heard "Kiddish," "House," and "Walk."  

 

No, she hadn't. It made me realize that this was a far too typical example of why men and women should not speak with each other -- it only increases confusion in the world.  We both agreed that I might be correct, but she pointed out that if men and women didn't speak to each other -- really associate in any way -- that there would be far fewer people in the world.

 

So, there you have it: the greater the number of men and women in the world  the greater the  confusion, and vice versa.  I'm in favor of disorder.  Fortunately, my wife puts up with mine.

Dr. Lynn is a lecturer at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Earth Sciences Department.  He is also CEO of Weather It Is, LTD, a company that specializes in reducing weather risk.

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בס"ד

...הָרִימִי בַכֹּחַ קוֹלֵךְ מְבַשֶּׂרֶת יְרוּשָׁלִָם הָרִימִי אַל תִּירָאִי אִמְרִי לְעָרֵי יְהוּדָה הִנֵּה אֱלֹקֵיכֶם! (ישעיה  מ:ט)

...Raise your voice with strength, herald of Jerusalem; raise it, do not be afraid; say to the cities of Judah, "Here is your G-d!"

(Isaiah 40:9)

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