Weather Wreaks Havoc with Forecasts and Dreams

Illustration (Image credit: Wix)

There's been a steady rain here in Efrat for the last couple of days, and the rain gauge finally feels like it has a purpose. The thermometer is also working hard -- to stay warm. Temperatures were below 10 C all day, and the 8 C temperature right now is the lowest all this fall/winter.

There were periods of showers and/or light rain earlier in the week, more in areas where clouds have been streaming in a line off the Mediterranean. These west-to-east lines of precipitation can exist for several hours or more and can lead to localized floods.

Showers should continue on Wednesday and the cold weather should continue into Friday morning, when winds should switch to the south, and temperatures will warm to mild levels. The warmer weather should peak late Shabbat, but winds backing to the west should bring cool weather until midweek with a chance of showers.

Looking further ahead, the month may end on a very mild note, and December may feel more like October.

Jerusalem forecast (click for other forecasts):

Image credit: The Jerusalem Herald

I am bit surprised that I was able to write this blog. You see last night I wrote my blog on the back of a check, and then the bank teller took it and didn't give it back, and I really didn't remember what I wrote. This was at a bank in Jerusalem, somewhere, but I don't remember where.

Of course, this sounds a bit silly. What happened was that the dog woke me up at 4 A.M and when I went back to bed I couldn't fall asleep -- except I did (but I thought I didn't). I spent the next two hours thinking I was up and about, doing all sorts of strange things, only to wake up to the sound of some rain drops (falling on the skylight) -- you can imagine I gave a sigh of relief.

Except that last Monday I really wasn't dreaming when I received an e-mail message that my forecast showed snow for that day -- heavy snow. My son said that he would never live it down, and considered staying home from school. My wife said I should find a different profession, and my daughter just looked at me, wondering why her father couldn't be like other fathers.

The good news is that I fixed the bug, and the atmospheric model I use was correctly predicting thunder and lightning for later that day. I hope that the next few days will bring fewer surprises, some quiet, and pleasant dreams.

Dr. Lynn is a lecturer at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Earth Sciences Department. He is also CEO of Weather It Is, LTD, a company that specializes in reducing weather risk.

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...הָרִימִי בַכֹּחַ קוֹלֵךְ מְבַשֶּׂרֶת יְרוּשָׁלִָם הָרִימִי אַל תִּירָאִי אִמְרִי לְעָרֵי יְהוּדָה הִנֵּה אֱלֹקֵיכֶם! (ישעיה  מ:ט)

...Raise your voice with strength, herald of Jerusalem; raise it, do not be afraid; say to the cities of Judah, "Here is your G-d!"

(Isaiah 40:9)

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