Spinning Up A Storm

December 17, 2017

Illustration (Image credit: Wix)

 

Our weather seems to be a bit on hold. This isn't a bad thing, as many people are up and about during this "holiday" Hanukkah week. There have been a few showers, and even more clouds, but it hasn't been too chilly either. In fact, the next few days, even several days should see milder weather as winds generally blow from westerly -- and at times -- southerly direction.

However, the global forecast ensemble (GEFS) suggests that the end of this week should turn a lot colder, and rain is likely. There is even a chance of extremely cold temperatures (near zero), and the possibility of turning the calendar on Hanukkah into a "real" winter with accumulating snow. But, the probability of heavy precipitation (and or snow) is only 20%.

While this doesn't seem likely, there is some good news in that the overall atmospheric pattern (as indicated by the "North Atlantic Oscillation" or NAO) is indicative of the potential for significant storms in our area. This is because a positive NAO tends to encourage circulation patterns that direct colder air our way from due north, which helps to keep temperatures cold and to spin up storms that can produce heavy precipitation.

 

Jerusalem forecast (click for other forecasts): 

Image credit: The Jerusalem Herald

While I may be hoping for a big storm to spin up and bring us a heavy snow, I still have to contend with day-to-day happenings that make my own head spin. After cleaning the salon and kitchen, baking challah, boiling eggs (!), and making blintzes and pie crust, the first thing I hear is: "I came home at one (13:00) so that you wouldn't still be here…you can't eat until the table is clean."  "Abba, when will I get my kitchen back?"  "Abba, move your stuff."

You see, there may be problems, and no good problems in the workplace, but the home is also a place of competition. There is even a competition over being tall. In fact, we did a bit of checking for one of our kids and he is expected to soar above both of us (and reach, quite possibly, 170 cm/5'7").

 

While I would have loved to have reached this height, it wasn't good enough for my wife who said that she wasn't worried about marrying me, height wise, saying "I thought that I would win out and all the kids, especially, the boys would be much taller than I." This just goes to show that when you really want to marry someone, love conquers all.

 

Dr. Lynn is a lecturer at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Earth Sciences Department.  He is also CEO of Weather It Is, LTD, a company that specializes in reducing weather risk.

 

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בס"ד

...הָרִימִי בַכֹּחַ קוֹלֵךְ מְבַשֶּׂרֶת יְרוּשָׁלִָם הָרִימִי אַל תִּירָאִי אִמְרִי לְעָרֵי יְהוּדָה הִנֵּה אֱלֹקֵיכֶם! (ישעיה  מ:ט)

...Raise your voice with strength, herald of Jerusalem; raise it, do not be afraid; say to the cities of Judah, "Here is your G-d!"

(Isaiah 40:9)

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