Image: Mosquito by CDC/ Prof. Frank Hadley Collins, Dir., Cntr. for Global Health and Infectious Diseases, Univ. of Notre Dame (Public Domain).
The weather the past few days has been simply gorgeous. The temperatures have been cool during the night and warm during the day, and there are even some clouds to make us think of winter.
The weather maps suggest that the cool weather should continue through the end of this week, but then there should be a turn towards more fall-like (what we now associate only with winter) weather.
Ahead of next week's storm, temperatures should warm into the upper 20's and maybe even the low 30's, but the mid-week period should see an increase in moisture from the west, as cool air sags southward into the eastern Mediterranean.
The latest forecast shows that the heavier precipitation with this upcoming storm will most likely stay to our north, but the Global Ensemble Forecasts System (GEFS) still shows the chance of rain in our area (Jerusalem). If the system does move further south, we're likely to see our first significant rains.
The latest word from the Israel Water Authority via Dr. Amir Givati (Head of Surface Water Management) is that all seasonal models are predicting above normal precipitation amounts for this coming winter. The CFSv2 (Seasonal climate forecast) is predicting normal surface temperatures, so we (or at least some of us) can hope that this winter will see snow return to Jerusalem during one of these precipitation events.
I really wish that I had the respect and admiration that will surely come Dr. Givati's way when the skies open up, and even a few folks head out to build their version of Noah's Ark.
You see, while I've been a weather forecaster since sixth grade (I decided to take matters into my own hands after another missed snowstorm — this was before the more "modern" era of weather forecasting), I've never really had much respect from it. My wife takes a jacket when I say it will be sunny, and she leaves it at home if I say it will rain. The kids never know what to wear, and if I tell them, they come home grumpy (usually, they've dressed too warmly).
Perhaps realizing what the future would bring, I figured I better have a useful skill — which is the reason I learned how to cook. I also thought that it would help me in the dating department. When at a loss of words, you can always say: "I can cook." I found it a great conversation starter, and was always amazed at the look of amazement on the faces of whomever I happened to be meeting that night. True, I never saw that person again, but at least we ended on what seemed like a high note.
Strangely, my wife seemed to appreciate both my ability to cook and the actualization of it. But, that was before we were married.
The other day I pointed out that my daughter had left the mixer on the counter. True, her puff cakes were delicious, but the mixer still remained. Rather than getting a word of understanding, my wife pointed out that she preferred the mixer on the counter to me in the kitchen.
You'd think, though, that there are at least some other things a husband can do to make his wife happy, or at least help out. After a summer of hard work (I in front of the computer and she at the supermarket), my wife announced that she was on strike — no more supermarket shopping for her.
Here was my chance! I took off to the local supermarket (even without a list) and proudly announced that my wife was on strike and that I would be the primary shopper from now on.
What a fool I was — within a few weeks she was back at the supermarket. She says that she just needed a few things, but a few things were really many things. I was so embarrassed — isn't there anything a husband can do to gain a bit of appreciation?
Yes — and my chance happened last night. The phone rang in the situation room (downstairs). It was my wife and she was hysterical. When I arrived at her room, her head was covered with dolls, pillows, and blankets. All I could see was her nose. Of course, so could the mosquito, which seemed to fly both in and out (of it) as I watched in horror. "Help me," she said, "it's giant."
I told her to remain calm, relaxed, and hopeful — she would be the prey, while I would hunt the hunter. After an hour of a dive-bombing mosquito, and squeals of I-don't-know-what, I and my high-powered flashlight found the mosquito hiding in the recess of our skylight. With a whack that was the end of (the rather large) mosquito.
You should have seen the smile she had for me this morning! Forget the cooking and shopping — I'm teaching my son how to kill mosquitoes.
Jerusalem forecast (click here for updated national forecasts):
Image credit: The Jerusalem Herald
Dr. Lynn is a lecturer at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Earth Sciences Department. He is also CEO of Weather It Is, LTD, a company that specializes in reducing weather risk. Click here to read more of this author’s work in The Jerusalem Herald.