llustration: Jerusalem Light Rail In Rain by Navot Miller - Own work [CC BY-SA 3.0] via Wikimedia
It's not often that I get to bask in the accolades of my admirers — there aren't many and they don't all live in the same place. Still, it was nice to know that I've done a good job this year both forecasting the weather and arranging for quite a number of stormy days; we've got to sell an interesting product.
Fortunately, like a hitter on a hot streak, the rainy and wintry weather is forecast to continue through this coming week. The next substantial rain will result from a large amplified ridge (over western Europe) combining with a deep trough over the Mediterranean. It should arrive by Tuesday or Wednesday and may be followed by another storm early next week — but there is also the possibility that warmer and drier air could end our rainy streak.
It's raining while I write this post, and it has generally been raining over a large portion of the country from about Jerusalem northward for a couple of days. You probably heard that over 150 mm (almost six inches) of rain fell in places closer to the coast, flooding streets and even buildings. This storm was interesting in that it basically stayed in one location for a long time with persistent heavy rain areas just north of areas with lighter amounts of rain; we had "just" 25 mm (one inch).
One can see to the left the forecast from our ensemble, which showed heavy rain falling within a three hour period Thursday night from Ashdod north to Netanya. The forecast correctly depicted the sharp north-to-south gradient of the area of heavy rain, and it did so throughout the storm.
This is reassuring and points out the usefulness of ensemble (multi-forecasts) that can correctly predict small scale, but very important differences in rainfall.
Have a good week and Happy Hanukkah.
Jerusalem forecast (click here for updated national forecasts):
Image credit: The Jerusalem Herald
Dr. Lynn is a lecturer at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Earth Sciences Department. He is also CEO of Weather It Is, LTD, a company that specializes in reducing weather risk. Click here to read more of this writer’s work in The Jerusalem Herald.