WEATHER: Snow? Only The Shadow Knows

Illustration: Snow Shadow by mmlmitchell [Pixabay License]

Our last weather "story" ended on a note of irony: despite the unlikely event of snow so late in March — and despite the number of near misses so far — the forecast did again show such a possibility.

Since then, our weather story has swung in different directions: first building a ridge over western Europe, but pushing the sinking trough over eastern Europe east of us. At that time, our forecast still pointed to a very end of March period of more winter cold and rain. However, the forecast has now swung back and is actually trending towards even colder temperatures with each new forecast — and our next event is now slated to arrive late Sunday night and Monday, and — for added irony — the end of the month also appears to be cold and rainy.

Most likely, it will indeed be cold and rainy throughout most of the country with strong winds early next week, and then again at the end of next week (with snow on the Hermon). However, there is still a chance of snow over higher elevations in the central mountains with our upcoming event.

Because the heaviest precipitation is forecast Sunday night into Monday, the sun will not warm the boundary layer temperatures (where we live) as the coldest air settles in, and evaporative processes cool surface temperatures. Therefore, unlike most of our previous storms, the coldest air associated with this storm should pass right over us. However, relatively warm air at lower levels associated with deepening low pressure will mean that this storm should be a rain and hail event, with strong winds. Snow should be confined to elevations most likely above 1100 m (in the Golan).

So, snow — even this late in the season (it is now officially spring) — is still a possibility. But will it snow? At this point, "Only the Shadow Knows..."

Otherwise, expect plenty of dust prior to the arrival of the storm, and the dust should continue over southern areas even on Monday. The chilly weather should last into next week, with another storm set to approach our area at the end of this coming week.

The winter rains have been and continue to be a blessing.

Jerusalem forecast (click here for updated national forecasts)

Image credit: The Jerusalem Herald

Dr. Lynn is a lecturer at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Earth Sciences Department. He is also CEO of Weather It Is, LTD, a company that specializes in reducing weather risk. Click here to read more of this writer’s work in The Jerusalem Herald.


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